Saturday, August 6, 2011

HERE COMES?

I can taste it.

What is it? A viable, free-wheeling populist candidacy in the Democratic presidential primaries.

The latest and biggest sellout by the Obama administration has probably sealed its fate. I used to think that the president could win the election if renominated, in which case we'd have another four years of pain and stultification, probably to be followed by a Republican regime and the completed wrecking of every social advance of the past century. But Obama is now looking like Carter: a one-termer who will lose, not because he's a liberal but because he's viewed as not up to the demands of the job in trying times.

Most recently we have Ralph Nader stating in an interview that there is a near-100% chance that a Dem will take on the president. That fits with my own assessment. With this much disaffection and frustration, I'd say it can't not happen. A challenger will have all the issues, together with all the emotional fire-power.

So far the situation in the Dem camp has been discouragement, fear, and passivity. Those unhappy with the president -- as who isn't by this time? -- have been afraid to disunite the party lest it lose and we end up with fanatics running the country.

But fear can be turned into anger, and anger can be turned into resolution and energy that can be harnessed for a cause. What that takes is called "leadership". (I realize that to the Democrats that's an alien concept; but the phenomenon does exist out there.)

Nader had pledged earlier that he would help find a Dem alternative, so I think we can figure that he has been taking soundings and offering suggestions. The concern had to be that he would come up with someone who would split the party but couldn't win: some avowed socialist or some testosterone-deprived professor of ecological science. So I am encouraged that he is talking in terms of a former senator or former governor. A veteran pol running as an outsider could have an advantage, having been vetted and knowing how to campaign effectively and how to avoid typical beginner's missteps.

Nader doesn't seem to have any particular individual in mind. That could mean that no one has taken his bait, or it could mean that several people are considering it. The absence of gossip about anyone at all seems to imply that the "community" of politicians isn't hearing anything, as it would leak from every pore if it did. This contrasts with Nader's confidence. Yet I don't read the latter as a bluff.

He says the only question is the candidate's level of stature. But the issue isn't stature. It's ability to generate conviction and support. Some obscure lawyer who is smart and aggressive and clean enough to withstand scrutiny could do that.

In our system we have seen candidates come out of nowhere and get nominated. William Jennings Bryan, a Congressman and activist, was new to most people when the Dems picked him at age 36. Wendell Willkie was devoid of electoral experience and had been a Dem until not long before when the Repub convention surprised itself by yielding to the carefully packed galleries' chant of "We Want Willkie!".

Either I'm way wrong or we will have ourselves a candidate within days or weeks. It feels as if it's on its way and tremendously close.

No comments:

Post a Comment