What about prospective third-party progressive Rocky Anderson? Watching him on YouTube, my first impression was that he won't get far. He seemed strident and obsessive. He used abstractions like "militarism" and "corporatism", which most people don't use and may not grasp. He came across as talking to an in-group, not to all of us. He focused on impractical objectives such as impeaching Dubya. And he lacked the evidences of warmth, friendliness, and humility that could draw people to him who didn't agree with him, as Ronald Reagan excelled at doing.
Let's note in fairness, however, that in all that Rocky was being an activist, not a candidate. He must know how to get votes, as he nearly won a Congressional race in a conservative district without pulling in his horns and later was a very electable mayor of Salt Lake City (even receiving bi-partisan backing from the likes of Mitt Romney, then a personal friend). So not what he has said but what he will say and how he will say it -- and who he evidently is -- will let us figure what we can expect from him.
Even at his worst, Rocky could turn out to do far better than Ralph Nader did. In '00, '04, and '08 the Democratic nominee was not an incumbent and one could hope that he would do the right things if he got in office; but in '12 we know that we can expect nothing from the Democrat and that any reversal of our fortunes will require an outsider. And Rocky, facing Mr. Obama and the Republican, will have all the issues going for him, while they will be on the defensive in relation to him.
But does he have the natural assurance and easy authority to gain wide acceptance? Is he not only a fighter but a big enough person that people will want to follow him? I am skeptical about that but am willing to wait and see how he does when he declares his candidacy.
What should a candidate be like? It's said one mustn't be angry, as Rocky plainly is. I would amend that to say that one mustn't appear to be a congenitally wrathful person. I think that if one is mad about things that anyone ought to be mad about, the people will share the sentiment rather than being put off by it. I suspect that one reason so many Americans seem not to trust or understand President Obama is because he is unable or unwilling to display warranted and communicable anger.
If you want to see how to really get votes, look to the person I think could be the Dems' most effective '16 nominee. He is not New York's dour Andrew Cuomo or Maryland's smooth Martin O'Malley, who are the ones most discussed, but Montana's charismatic, larger-than-life Governor Brian Schweitzer, who is endlessly inventive and as far from Wall Street mentally as geographically.
Schweitzer is a rancher and scientist who has worked in the Middle East and knows how to negotiate with Bedouins (the one who reveals what he wants first is at a disadvantage). The first time he ran for office, he took elderly people to Canada by bus to buy prescription drugs there, where they are much cheaper, capturing the public's imagination; with that and similar tactics he nearly won a U.S. Senate seat despite long odds. Chasing the governorship, he came across as an unconventional and unpredictable common-sense liberal populist whose TV ads showed him hunting and who picked a moderate Republican, State Senator John Bohlinger, as his runningmate for lieutenant governor. But he is no sellout centrist. He boasts of having gotten through his legislature "the most progressive package in America", emphasizing the environment and education, and he has remained one of the nation's most popular governors while his party's fortunes have see-sawed.
If you want to see his style, check out this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qr0Bkmq2oRE&feature=related.
In the case of Rocky Anderson, we can hope for the best: at least that he will make the case for what has to be done and may win many new adherents for it. In the case of Brian Schweitzer, well, 2016 will come eventually, and he has the kind of good energy that suggests to me that it may choose to carry him with it.
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