'12: THE GOP FIELD

I've said something about Gingrich, Huckabee, Palin, Paul, Pawlenty, and Romney as Repub presidential possibilities. There are more, and this is a summing up of the whole bunch as things look to me presently. Additional ones may emerge from the woodwork, naturally.


>Haley Barbour: Mississippi gov, onetime political operative and GOP national chair, former lobbyist; good-ol'-boy, smooth, shrewd, not right for right now and probably lacks the necessary fire in his expanding belly; I doubt he'll go after it.


>Scott Brown: Newbie Massachusetts senator, GOP miracle candidate and hunk; moderate enough for MA means too moderate for the national Republicult; won't run.


>Jeb Bush: Son and brother of two presidents, former Florida gov, praised for ability, viewed with skepticism because of Dubya's unpopularity; people think it's too soon for another Bush. But it's a volatile situation. I think he'll end up running for it, unless he decides it's hopeless and opts to wait for '16. My guess is he has as good a shot as anybody.


>Dick Cheney: Former veep, bad heart, bad attitude, loved by the far right and feared by everyone else. Despite his excellent ogre credentials, I don't think he wants it; his health would preclude a run anyway.


>Bob Corker: Tennessee first-term senator, gray-haired and modest-looking; nothing remarkable; could come across as moderate despite some mean rhetoric. Maybe for vice president as balance if the top candidate is a rightist fire-breather.


>Mitch Daniels: Onetime federal budget director; more recently capable but skinflint two-term Indiana gov; intelligent, colorless, no particular appeal to most but is the favorite of the rightie intelligentsia. Maybe treasury secretary if the GOP were to win.


Newt Gingrich: Scandal-scarred and too out of synch with the teabaggers, but proud owner of a great reactionary record. Among those in this field, a heavyweight, though erratic. Might take it if he can re-invent himself in some respects.


>Mike Huckabee: His cheerfulness and shortage of malice could make him popular among the electorate at large, but he comes across as a lightweight and seems disinclined to run again. So, no.

>Bobby Jindal: Young, of Indian ancestry; Louisiana gov and former Congressman; threw over Hinduism for Catholicism when younger; intellectual with doubtful instincts. For pres, no; possible for vice pres but probably not because whiter, more decisive, and dumber people are available.


>Sarah Palin: Too ignorant and mentally lazy to be competitive and with a closet likely to contain skeletons. No go.


>Rand Paul: I saw him as a real possibility, but he had better find some beliefs that most Americans agree with and learn to keep his mouth shut in the meantime. He has started to seem less interesting than just featherweight and oddball.


>Tim Pawlenty: Too ordinary and, in a way, maybe too normal: no cutting edge of fanatical anger. More plausible as veep nominee.


>Mike Pence: Indiana Congressman, wrathfully bland and outspokenly rightist; could be vice presidential prospect at most, unless he finds a theme that sets him apart and that works.


>Mitt Romney: No ability to project himself as angry outsider, and his Mormonism is poison to the Religious Right. I don't think so.


>Rick Santorum: Former boy Congressman from the Pittsburgh area and two-term U.S. senator; got annihilated going for a third term; was always overrated and had lucked out because of the decadence and ineffectuality of the Western Pennsylvania Dems. Is saying the same stuff he has always said, which means he doesn't read the moment perceptively. Maybe secretary of health or something were the Repubs to win.


>John Thune: Somewhat handsome one-term South Dakota senator, beat Tom Daschle; unopposed for re-election this year. No great shakes but just the kind of unifyingly meaningless conservative nonentity who might win if better-known figures implode.


So, then, who do I think will get it? Jeb or Newt or maybe Rand or some very rich and charismatic teabagger not yet in view. Chances for any of them in the general election: slight.


(Save this posting and you can come back some day and remind me how wrong I got it.)